I'm going to cut right to the chase: Our first attempt at using MMA Math to predict UFC fights did NOT go well. In fact, of the four fights we made predictions for on the #UFC210 card, the only one we got right was the one which required the least (or no) amount of MMA Math to "solve."
But, it is always darkest before the dawn, and as such, we shall push forward, using this fascinating yet imperfect science to predict the winners of this weekend's #UFConFOX24 main card. Join us, and for a brief refresher on what exactly MMA Math is, head here.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Renato Moicano
Common opponents: None
Although Jeremy Stephens has enjoyed a 10-year, um, tenure in the UFC, it is Moicano's near complete lack of notable opposition in the promotion that prevents us from engaging in any real MMAthematical wizardry here. Truly, there is only one path of UFC that connects these two featherweights, which is:
- Ranato Moicano def. Tom Niinimäki via SUB
- Tom Niinimäki def. Rani Yahya via Split Decision
- Rani Yahya def. Mike Brown via Unanimous Decision
- Mike Brown def. Yves Edwards via Unanimous Decision
- Yves Edwards def. Jeremy Stephens via KO
Prediction: Moicano via decision.
Ronaldo Souza vs. Robert Whittaker
Common opponents: Derek Brunson
Now this is interesting. Both Souza and Whitaker have defeated the one opponent they have in common, both fights were finished in the first round, and both by way of the (T)KO. But while Jacare's win over Brunson was a 41-second flawless victory, Whittaker's was a TKO that came at the end of a wild barnburner. I dare even say that Whittaker was rocked a time or two by Brunson's patented drunken pirate attack in that fight, which definitely doesn't speak well for his chances against Souza.
Prediction: Souza by TKO.
Michelle Waterson vs. Rose Namajunas
Common opponents: Paige VanZant
Again, it all comes down to one opponent here, Paige Vanzant, who was utterly thrashed for five straight rounds by Namajunas before being choked unconscious and clinically picked apart by Waterson for less than 4 minutes...before being choked unconscious. It all depends on how you weigh savagery against strategy. Based purely on the numbers, however...
Prediction: Waterson by decision.
Demetrious Johnson vs. Wilson Reis
Common opponents: None
Now this, this is infuriating. The UFC's flyweight division literally has less than 30 total fighters, Johnson has defended his title nearly ten times, and yet these two don't have one common opponent between them. NOT EVEN ONE. It's almost a statistical anomaly that two people could spend so long in the same division without fighting, and yet here we are. NOT. ONE. It's as if this fight really has no business being booked at all, you know?
- def. Henry Cejudo via TKO
- Henry Cejudo def. Jussier Formiga via Split Decision
- Jussier Formiga def. Wilson Reis via Unanimous Decision
- def. Scott Jorgensen via SUB
- Scott Jorgensen def. Brad Pickett via Unanimous Decision
- Brad Pickett def. Demetrious Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Prediction: Well I'll be damned, maybe this won't be the blowout we all think it will...
Johnson by whatever he wants.